Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Copytrade Mode Updates From MFM Securities

We decided to change our copytrade mode to High-Water Mark mode replacing the existing mode (All Profit).

High-Water Mark mode (or HWM) takes into account previous Trading results of a subscription. With this mode, a Trading result generates a Performance fee only if the Trading results of all the previous intervals in total cover the total loss of the subscription, and if its profit goes over the highest profit ever reached (the High-Water Mark).

When it is reached, and the subscription profits, even more, the High-Water Mark is updated and set to a new, higher, level.
The performance fee is paid only for positive Trading results above the High-Water Mark level. Therefore, providers will get paid for their service only if their trades constantly make a profit for their followers.

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Russian Supplies

Most refineries globally are operating near capacity to meet rising demand as they recover from the pandemic and make up for lost Russian supplies.

JPMorgan analysts estimate that Russia has cut between 500,000 and 700,000 barrels per day of oil product exports, because it now finds marketing fuel more difficult than marketing crude oil.

"Unless new production capacity emerges in the Middle East more quickly than we expect, or if China decides to raise its export caps, the shortage of petroleum products will worsen as the demand for transportation fuels increases during the Northern Hemisphere summer," they said in a statement.

On Tuesday, China released the first batch of product export quotas aimed at reducing soaring domestic inventories, which rose as demand slumped due to epidemic shutdowns.

Despite recent additions to quotas, volumes are still significantly lower than they were last year.

Markets News :
EUR leads, JPY lags on the day
European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.94%
US 10-year yields up 3.3 bps to 3.00%
Gold down 0.34% to $1,846.53
WTI crude up 0.76% to $120.72
Bitcoin down 6% to $30,234

Global Oil Supply

The World Bank on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2022 by a third, warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the coronavirus pandemic and that many countries are now facing a recession.

Meanwhile, global supplies of crude oil and petroleum products remain tight, boosting diesel profit margins for Asian refiners to record levels, as Western sanctions hamper exports from Russia.

The CEO of global commodity trading company Trafigura said oil prices could soon reach $150 a barrel and rise this year, with demand likely to be destroyed by the end of the year.

US Oil Stocks

Analysts expected a further decline in US oil inventories, although gasoline and distillate stocks may rise, according to a Reuters poll. "The oil market is expected to remain tight, as the supply side will continue to tell the story of low inventories," said analyst Edward Moya.

He added that crude oil inventories are likely to record more clouds, with the intensification of the driving and holiday season in the United States. However, figures released by the American Petroleum Institute showed a rise in inventories of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States, last week.

The US Energy Information Administration will announce inventory levels last week, at 02:30 PM GMT today, Wednesday.

Oil prices rise Brent crude above $ 121

Oil prices rose, during trading today, Wednesday, June 8, 2022, amid expectations of a decrease in US oil stocks. The rise coincides with expectations of increased demand for fuel in the upcoming driving season, as the US Energy Information Administration raised its forecasts for oil demand this year.

The price of the Brent crude futures contract - for delivery next August - rose by 0.85%, to reach $ 121.81 a barrel, after closing yesterday, Tuesday, at its highest level since May 31. The price of future contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude - for delivery next July - rose by 0.76%, recording $ 120.72 a barrel, after reaching its highest settlement since March 8 in the previous session, according to data seen by the specialized energy platform.

Oil prices ended their trading yesterday, Tuesday, with a rise in volatile trading, as the market reduced risk sentiment against fears of supply shortages and the possibility of higher demand after China eased restrictions on the Corona virus.

The trade deficit in the United States narrows dramatically in April

The trade deficit in the United States shrank sharply in April as imports fell, implying that trade may contribute to economic growth this quarter for the first time in two years.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the trade deficit dropped 19.1% to $87.1 billion. Imports of goods and services fell 3.4% to $339.7 billion, while exports increased 3.5% to $252.6 billion. A record trade deficit chopped 3.23 percentage points from gross domestic product in the first quarter, resulting in GDP contracting at a 1.5% annualized rate after growing at a robust 6.9% pace in the fourth quarter. Trade has subtracted from GDP for seven straight quarters.

Markets News :
USD leads, NZD lags on the day
European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.31%
Gold up 0.24% to $1,843.13
WTI crude down 1.22% to $117.91
Bitcoin down 6% to $29,494

The US dollar strengthens early Tuesday ahead of trade

The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Tuesday ahead of the release of data on the April international trade gap and weekly Redbook US retail sales, but the focus remains on Friday's May consumer price report.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its next meeting on June 14-15, with recent comments from Fed officials supporting that expectation and pointing to another 50 basis point increase at the July 26-27 meeting.

Federal Reserve officials remain in quiet period this week ahead of the June meeting, so there are no appearances on the schedule.

Consumer price data is unlikely to have any impact on the next week's expected rate increase but could help determine the path of future increases if it shows that inflation has already begun to slow.

Other data this week include wholesale inventories for April on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for June on Friday.


A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Tuesday:

GBP-USD fell to 1.2517 from 1.2529 at the Monday US close and 1.2552 at the same point Monday morning. Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a confidence vote Monday but over 40% of the members of his own party wanted him ousted. The UK services PMI fell in May due to the fastest rise in costs since 1996, data released earlier Tuesday showed. The Bank of England meets next on June 16 where another increase in interest rates is expected.

EUR-USD fell to 1.0676 from 1.0696 at the Monday US close and 1.0727 at the same point Monday morning. German factory orders fell sharply in April while construction PMI hit a nine-month low in May, data released earlier Tuesday showed. Spanish industrial production, however, surged in April. EU employment and gross domestic product will be released Wednesday one day before the European Central Bank meets Thursday. The ECB is expected to pave the way for its first rate increase of the cycle at its July 22 meeting.

USD-JPY rose to 132.8199 from 131.8927 at the Monday US close and 130.6431 at the same point Monday morning. Japanese household spending fell in April as real wages declined, though the leading and coincident measures rose from March, data released earlier Tuesday showed. Japanese inflation data will be released Friday. The Bank of Japan meets on June 16-17 and is expected to maintain its ultra-low interest rate regime to boost growth further.

USD-CAD rose to 1.2589 from 1.2580 at the Monday US close and 1.2565 at the same point Monday morning. The monthly Canadian trade balance is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET, followed by the Canada IVEY index at 10:00 am ET. After a 50 basis point rate increase at its meeting last week, the Bank of Canada is expected to push rates even higher at future meetings to fight inflation. The next meeting is scheduled for July 13.

Gold reclaims $1,850 and hopes for a move towards $1,900 are renewed

Gold price continues making higher highs and higher lows. Gold price recently lost $1,850 and tested the next immediate support at $1,840. Despite the pull back, Gold price did not break the important low at $1,827. Gold price has formed a higher low. This setup is bullish and will confirm a new bullish signal if price breaks above recent highs. Gold price has support at recent low at $1,836 where we also find the upward sloping red support trend line. 

Resistance remains key at the 38% Fibonacci retracement where we have seen so far two tests and two rejections. As long as Gold price holds above the support trend line, then we should expect to see a break above the 38% level and a push towards $1,900-$1,910.

EURUSD Daily candle gives hopes to bulls


EURUSD is trading above 1.07 once again. Today's Daily candle is a glimpse of hope for bulls as price moved as low as 1.0652 but is now trading near its daily highs. EURUSD has formed a higher low relative to the 1.0627 low a few days earlier. Although price remains inside the medium-term bearish channel, here is potential for a move towards the upper boundary near 1.0920. As long as price is above 1.0627 we remain optimistic that bulls will challenge the upper channel boundary.

Red line -resistance trend line

GBPUSD is trading around 1.2595 still below the key downward sloping resistance trend line. As long as price is below this trend line, GBPUSD is vulnerable to more downside. So far price pulled back towards 1.2428 but on a daily basis we see today's candle as a possible reversal to the upside candle. 

Price has formed a higher low which is important in order to build a bullish setup. If bulls manage to break above the red resistance trend line at 1.2630, then we will get a new bullish signal that could eventually push price towards 1.2950. Support remains at today's low. Bulls do not want to see price below this level. Breaking below this level will increase chances of a rejection and a move to new lows.

Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on June 7-8, 2022: buy above $1,842

Gold (XAU/USD) is rebounding from the daily low at $1,833 and is now trading above the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA on 1-hour charts. It is currently located at $1,845, making a slight correction after having found resistance at the 200 EMA around $1,850.According to the 1-hour chart, we can see the formation of a descending wedge. The breakout of this pattern could confirm the bullish movement of gold and it could reach the resistance zone of 6/8 Murray around $1,875 in the coming hours.

Gold benefited as US Treasury yields have fallen during the European session and are likely to continue their decline during the American session. Additionally, the US dollar index is also showing signs of weakness which favors gold.

Consolidation on the 4-hour chart and a daily close above $1,850 could mean acceleration of the bullish move, and the outlook for gold is positive as it could reach the zone of $1,865 and $1,875.Investors are concerned about the rate hike in the US because it reduces the demand for this safe-haven asset that does not generate interest or return.

As long as it remains trading below 6/8 Murray, any momentum in gold will be considered a technical correction. The bearish pressure exerted below this zone could send gold lower again.

In the medium term, a close above $1,875(6/8) could mean an advance in gold as it could reach the psychological level of $1,900 or even the zone of 7/8 Murray at 1,937.

In the short term, our signals remain positive due to the falling wedge pattern. This technical figure should be confirmed if gold consolidates above the 200 EMA. If this happens, we could buy gold with targets at $1,869 and $1,875.

The eagle indicator has reached the extreme oversold zone since June 6 which is an imminent sign of a technical correction in the next few hours, supporting our bullish strategy.

EUR/USD extends its range

The EUR/USD pair rebounded as the Dollar Index plunged after reaching strong resistance levels. In the short term, the currency pair continues to move sideways, and only escaping from the current range could bring new trading opportunities. 

Surprisingly or not, the EUR/USD pair bounced back despite the German Factory Orders dropped by 2.7% versus 0.4% growth expected, while the US Trade Balance came in better than expected at -87.1B versus -89.6B forecasts. Fundamentally, the ECB and the US inflation publication could really shake the markets at the end of the week.

EUR/USD rebound
Technically, the EUR/USD pair failed to reach 1.0641 key support and now it tries to come back higher. It is trapped between 1.0757 and 1.0641 levels. 
Personally, I'll wait for the rate to escape from this range before I'll take action. 

After dropping below the uptrend line, the EUR/USD pair was somehow expected to develop a strong downside movement but unfortunately, the rate failed to make a new lower low.

EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD pair could activate a larger drop if it makes a new lower low. A valid breakdown below 1.0641 brings new selling opportunities.

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Deposit Bonus From MFM Securities

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4. Support Floating & Margin For MT5, Micro account only

Trading Analysis of USD/CAD From Paxforex

Our Analysis:
While the price is below 1.2700, follow the recommendations below:
Time frame: D1
Recommendation: short position
Entry point: 1.2574
Take Profit 1: 1.2520
Take Profit 2: 1.2400

Alternative scenario:
If the level 1.2700 is broken-out, follow the recommendations below:
Time frame: D1
Recommendation: long position
Entry point: 1.2700
Take Profit 1: 1.2850
Take Profit 2: 1.2915

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Analisa Teknikal Harian Dari MFM Securities

 AUD/USD intraday: penurunan mendominasi.
 
Titik pivot (level invalidasi): 0,7210
Preferensi Kami: Posisi short di bawah 0,7210 dengan target @ 0,7160 & 0,7140 dalam kisaran.
Skenario alternatif: Di atas 0,7210, maka target kenaikan berikutnya adalah 0,7230 & 0,7250.
Keterangan teknis: RSI mengalami bearish dan memerlukan further decline.


Analisa Teknikal Harian Dari MFM Securities

EUR/USD intraday: pantau 1,0650.
 
Titik pivot (level invalidasi): 1,0715
Preferensi Kami: Posisi short di bawah 1,0715 dengan target @ 1,0670 & 1,0650 dalam kisaran.
Skenario alternatif: Di atas 1,0715, maka target kenaikan berikutnya adalah 1,0730 & 1,0750.
Keterangan teknis: RSI menopang further downside.


Daily Technical Analysis From MFM Securities

The U.S. dollar remained firm to other major currencies. The dollar index advanced to 102.38.

USD/JPY climbed 98 pips to 131.86, the highest level since 2002. This morning, official data showed that household spending in Japan declined 1.7% on year in April (vs -1.0% expected), while labor cash earnings increased 1.7% (vs +1.1% expected).

AUD/USD declined 12 pips to 0.7195. Later today, Australia's central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.60%.

GBP/USD gained 44 pips to 1.2532. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a confidence vote by Conservative Members of Parliament. However, 148, or 41%, out of 211 Tory MPs voted against him.

EUR/USD fell 23 pips to 1.0696.

USD/CHF increased 88 pips to 0.9709, while USD/CAD slipped 15 pips to 1.2579.

After printing a positive weekly bar last week following a record losing streak of 9 weeks, Bitcoin bounced 5% further to levels above $31,300.